Thursday, October 23, 2014

Rally Over?

As the clock ticks, reality creeps up on the unsuspecting.  High on optimism--the opium of the FED--the bulls poo-poo each dip, but the clock goes on.  Europe too creeps closer to the edge.  But the daze of optimism keeps them buying.  Watch yields rise--not because of the FED--but because deflation will make money costly.  GL

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Albert Edwards on central banks: | InvestmentWatch

 

Albert Edwards on central banks: | InvestmentWatch

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Wall Street Is One Sick Puppy—–Thanks To Even Sicker Central Banks | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

Wall Street Is One Sick Puppy—–Thanks To Even Sicker Central Banks | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Are Put buyers getting it right?

I think so.  This last rally only makes chart formation more bearish, and, accordingly, put buyers saw the same thing.  Also, RUT is again leading the way--down.  While the dollar and yields continue to rise.  Dow is back under 200 DMA, and VIX is rising.  This may be a wild speculation on my part--so you are warned--but what if the major indexes are sporting 1s and 2s, instead of 1, 2, 3, 4, which we may have just finished, today being the start of wave 5 down.  But if it is 1s and 2s, that would mean the market is setting up for a crash--starting tomorrow or next week.  We will know soon.  I only bring this up because it is on my mind.  GL

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Italy Sees Second Straight Month of Deflation

 

Italy Sees Second Straight Month of Deflation

Warning Flags in the Stock Market

 

Warning Flags in the Stock Market

Market Turmoil Ahead? ‘Fear Index’ Shows Unprecedented Activity. Calm Before the Storm? | InvestmentWatch

 

Market Turmoil Ahead? ‘Fear Index’ Shows Unprecedented Activity. Calm Before the Storm? | InvestmentWatch

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Counter-trend Rally Over?

With every one high on today's rally, my gut says it's about over.  Sorry happy people.  The market has done its job--made you complacent again.  With many major indexes popping above their 200 DMA, it interesting to note that the total market cumulative Advance-Decline Ratio did not get over its 200 DMA.  Somebody is not participating.  With the Dow getting close to its 62% retracement of previous wave and every body wild about the rally, I think it's time for new lows, in a wave 5 drop, which, to be sure, will be followed by a big rally, which will be followed by new lows.  GL

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Interview: “We’re seeing deflating assets in a whole host of markets”

 

Interview: “We’re seeing deflating assets in a whole host of markets”

Invixtus

 

Invixtus

The Canary In Big Blue’s Mainframe: Why IBM’s Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

The Canary In Big Blue’s Mainframe: Why IBM’s Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point | David Stockman's Contra Corner

John Hussman: On The Tendency Of Large Market Losses To Occur In Succession | Seeking Alpha

 

John Hussman: On The Tendency Of Large Market Losses To Occur In Succession | Seeking Alpha

Friday, October 17, 2014

$RUT--Next wave down will be 5th of primary 1

The next wave down in stock market--to start next week--will be final wave for first leg down of this bear market.  Expect a large retracement after that--then a resumption of bear.  RUT is leading way down--as it has been for months.  Still looking for 15,000 or so.  Looking for TVIX to stop somewhere between 7.20 and 8.35, depends how crazy it gets.  Maybe a little more on Monday, but after that it's down.  GL

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NG: Commercials get more bullish

 

http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/NG.png

$RUT--Is RUT the leader?

As everyone jumps for joy over this relief rally, RUT has been making nothing but new daily lows all morning.  Time to buy TVIX.  GL

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Nine Ominous Signals That Say—–Don’t Buy The Dip! | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

Nine Ominous Signals That Say—–Don’t Buy The Dip! | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Dennis Gartman: Stay In Cash And Short-Term Bonds

 

Dennis Gartman: Stay In Cash And Short-Term Bonds

S&P 500 And Volatility In 2007 Vs. 2014 (Part II)

 

S&P 500 And Volatility In 2007 Vs. 2014 (Part II)