Wednesday, October 22, 2014
I think so. This last rally only makes chart formation more bearish, and, accordingly, put buyers saw the same thing. Also, RUT is again leading the way--down. While the dollar and yields continue to rise. Dow is back under 200 DMA, and VIX is rising. This may be a wild speculation on my part--so you are warned--but what if the major indexes are sporting 1s and 2s, instead of 1, 2, 3, 4, which we may have just finished, today being the start of wave 5 down. But if it is 1s and 2s, that would mean the market is setting up for a crash--starting tomorrow or next week. We will know soon. I only bring this up because it is on my mind. GL
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
With every one high on today's rally, my gut says it's about over. Sorry happy people. The market has done its job--made you complacent again. With many major indexes popping above their 200 DMA, it interesting to note that the total market cumulative Advance-Decline Ratio did not get over its 200 DMA. Somebody is not participating. With the Dow getting close to its 62% retracement of previous wave and every body wild about the rally, I think it's time for new lows, in a wave 5 drop, which, to be sure, will be followed by a big rally, which will be followed by new lows. GL
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Friday, October 17, 2014
The next wave down in stock market--to start next week--will be final wave for first leg down of this bear market. Expect a large retracement after that--then a resumption of bear. RUT is leading way down--as it has been for months. Still looking for 15,000 or so. Looking for TVIX to stop somewhere between 7.20 and 8.35, depends how crazy it gets. Maybe a little more on Monday, but after that it's down. GL
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
The junk/treasury spread is rising again.
Panic buying in Treasurys - 10-year yield plunges to 2% • 9:35 AM
Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
• No need to do a double-take. The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower by 20 basis points to 2.00%, with clearly something more at work than a couple of weak economic reports.
• Germany goes full Japan, with 10-year Bund yields lower by nine basis points to 0.71%, and U.K. 10-year Gilt yields are down 16 bps to 1.98%.
• Previously moving lower in lockstep with Germany, peripheral yields don't keep up today. Spanish 10-years are up four bps to 2.14% and Italy's are up 14 basis points to 2.45%.